Fitting TESS data¶

from scipy.signal import savgol_filter

# Sort the pixels by median brightness
order = np.argsort(mean_img.flatten())[::-1]

# A function to estimate the windowed scatter in a lightcurve
def estimate_scatter_with_mask(mask):
    f = np.sum(flux[:, mask], axis=-1)
    smooth = savgol_filter(f, 1001, polyorder=5)
    return 1e6 * np.sqrt(np.median((f / smooth - 1) ** 2))


# Loop over pixels ordered by brightness and add them one-by-one
# to the aperture
masks, scatters = [], []
for i in range(10, 100):
    msk = np.zeros_like(mean_img, dtype=bool)
    msk[np.unravel_index(order[:i], mean_img.shape)] = True
    scatter = estimate_scatter_with_mask(msk)
    masks.append(msk)
    scatters.append(scatter)

# Choose the aperture that minimizes the scatter
pix_mask = masks[np.argmin(scatters)]

# Plot the selected aperture
plt.imshow(mean_img.T, cmap="gray_r")
plt.imshow(pix_mask.T, cmap="Reds", alpha=0.3)
plt.title("selected aperture")
plt.xticks([])
plt.yticks([]);

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
sap_flux = np.sum(flux[:, pix_mask], axis=-1)
sap_flux = (sap_flux / np.median(sap_flux) - 1) * 1e3
plt.plot(time, sap_flux, "k")
plt.xlabel("time [days]")
plt.ylabel("relative flux [ppt]")
plt.title("raw light curve")
plt.xlim(time.min(), time.max());

# Build the first order PLD basis
X_pld = np.reshape(flux[:, pix_mask], (len(flux), -1))
X_pld = X_pld / np.sum(flux[:, pix_mask], axis=-1)[:, None]

# Build the second order PLD basis and run PCA to reduce the number of dimensions
X2_pld = np.reshape(X_pld[:, None, :] * X_pld[:, :, None], (len(flux), -1))
U, _, _ = np.linalg.svd(X2_pld, full_matrices=False)
X2_pld = U[:, : X_pld.shape[1]]

# Construct the design matrix and fit for the PLD model
X_pld = np.concatenate((np.ones((len(flux), 1)), X_pld, X2_pld), axis=-1)
XTX = np.dot(X_pld.T, X_pld)
w_pld = np.linalg.solve(XTX, np.dot(X_pld.T, sap_flux))
pld_flux = np.dot(X_pld, w_pld)

# Plot the de-trended light curve
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(time, sap_flux - pld_flux, "k")
plt.xlabel("time [days]")
plt.ylabel("de-trended flux [ppt]")
plt.title("initial de-trended light curve")
plt.xlim(time.min(), time.max());

from astropy.timeseries import BoxLeastSquares

period_grid = np.exp(np.linspace(np.log(1), np.log(15), 50000))

bls = BoxLeastSquares(time, sap_flux - pld_flux)
bls_power = bls.power(period_grid, 0.1, oversample=20)

# Save the highest peak as the planet candidate
index = np.argmax(bls_power.power)
bls_period = bls_power.period[index]
bls_t0 = bls_power.transit_time[index]
bls_depth = bls_power.depth[index]
transit_mask = bls.transit_mask(time, bls_period, 0.2, bls_t0)

fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(10, 10))

# Plot the periodogram
ax = axes[0]
ax.axvline(np.log10(bls_period), color="C1", lw=5, alpha=0.8)
ax.plot(np.log10(bls_power.period), bls_power.power, "k")
ax.annotate(
    "period = {0:.4f} d".format(bls_period),
    (0, 1),
    xycoords="axes fraction",
    xytext=(5, -5),
    textcoords="offset points",
    va="top",
    ha="left",
    fontsize=12,
)
ax.set_ylabel("bls power")
ax.set_yticks([])
ax.set_xlim(np.log10(period_grid.min()), np.log10(period_grid.max()))
ax.set_xlabel("log10(period)")

# Plot the folded transit
ax = axes[1]
x_fold = (time - bls_t0 + 0.5 * bls_period) % bls_period - 0.5 * bls_period
m = np.abs(x_fold) < 0.4
ax.plot(x_fold[m], sap_flux[m] - pld_flux[m], ".k")

# Overplot the phase binned light curve
bins = np.linspace(-0.41, 0.41, 32)
denom, _ = np.histogram(x_fold, bins)
num, _ = np.histogram(x_fold, bins, weights=sap_flux - pld_flux)
denom[num == 0] = 1.0
ax.plot(0.5 * (bins[1:] + bins[:-1]), num / denom, color="C1")

ax.set_xlim(-0.3, 0.3)
ax.set_ylabel("de-trended flux [ppt]")
ax.set_xlabel("time since transit");

m = ~transit_mask
XTX = np.dot(X_pld[m].T, X_pld[m])
w_pld = np.linalg.solve(XTX, np.dot(X_pld[m].T, sap_flux[m]))
pld_flux = np.dot(X_pld, w_pld)

x = np.ascontiguousarray(time, dtype=np.float64)
y = np.ascontiguousarray(sap_flux - pld_flux, dtype=np.float64)

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(time, y, "k")
plt.xlabel("time [days]")
plt.ylabel("de-trended flux [ppt]")
plt.title("final de-trended light curve")
plt.xlim(time.min(), time.max());

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))

x_fold = (x - bls_t0 + 0.5 * bls_period) % bls_period - 0.5 * bls_period
m = np.abs(x_fold) < 0.3
plt.plot(x_fold[m], pld_flux[m], ".k", ms=4)

bins = np.linspace(-0.5, 0.5, 60)
denom, _ = np.histogram(x_fold, bins)
num, _ = np.histogram(x_fold, bins, weights=pld_flux)
denom[num == 0] = 1.0
plt.plot(0.5 * (bins[1:] + bins[:-1]), num / denom, color="C1", lw=2)
plt.xlim(-0.2, 0.2)
plt.xlabel("time since transit")
plt.ylabel("PLD model flux");

import exoplanet as xo
import pymc3 as pm
import theano.tensor as tt


def build_model(mask=None, start=None):
    if mask is None:
        mask = np.ones(len(x), dtype=bool)
    with pm.Model() as model:

        # Parameters for the stellar properties
        mean = pm.Normal("mean", mu=0.0, sd=10.0)
        u_star = xo.distributions.QuadLimbDark("u_star")

        # Stellar parameters from Huang et al (2018)
        M_star_huang = 1.094, 0.039
        R_star_huang = 1.10, 0.023
        BoundedNormal = pm.Bound(pm.Normal, lower=0, upper=3)
        m_star = BoundedNormal("m_star", mu=M_star_huang[0], sd=M_star_huang[1])
        r_star = BoundedNormal("r_star", mu=R_star_huang[0], sd=R_star_huang[1])

        # Orbital parameters for the planets
        logP = pm.Normal("logP", mu=np.log(bls_period), sd=1)
        t0 = pm.Normal("t0", mu=bls_t0, sd=1)
        logr = pm.Normal(
            "logr",
            sd=1.0,
            mu=0.5 * np.log(1e-3 * np.array(bls_depth)) + np.log(R_star_huang[0]),
        )
        r_pl = pm.Deterministic("r_pl", tt.exp(logr))
        ror = pm.Deterministic("ror", r_pl / r_star)
        b = xo.distributions.ImpactParameter("b", ror=ror)

        # This is the eccentricity prior from Kipping (2013):
        # https://arxiv.org/abs/1306.4982
        ecc = xo.distributions.eccentricity.kipping13("ecc", testval=0.1)
        omega = xo.distributions.Angle("omega")

        # Transit jitter & GP parameters
        logs2 = pm.Normal("logs2", mu=np.log(np.var(y[mask])), sd=10)
        logw0 = pm.Normal("logw0", mu=0, sd=10)
        logSw4 = pm.Normal("logSw4", mu=np.log(np.var(y[mask])), sd=10)

        # Tracking planet parameters
        period = pm.Deterministic("period", tt.exp(logP))

        # Orbit model
        orbit = xo.orbits.KeplerianOrbit(
            r_star=r_star,
            m_star=m_star,
            period=period,
            t0=t0,
            b=b,
            ecc=ecc,
            omega=omega,
        )

        # Compute the model light curve using starry
        light_curves = (
            xo.LimbDarkLightCurve(u_star).get_light_curve(
                orbit=orbit, r=r_pl, t=x[mask], texp=texp
            )
            * 1e3
        )
        light_curve = pm.math.sum(light_curves, axis=-1) + mean
        pm.Deterministic("light_curves", light_curves)

        # GP model for the light curve
        kernel = xo.gp.terms.SHOTerm(log_Sw4=logSw4, log_w0=logw0, Q=1 / np.sqrt(2))
        gp = xo.gp.GP(kernel, x[mask], tt.exp(logs2) + tt.zeros(mask.sum()), J=2)
        pm.Potential("transit_obs", gp.log_likelihood(y[mask] - light_curve))
        pm.Deterministic("gp_pred", gp.predict())

        # Fit for the maximum a posteriori parameters, I've found that I can get
        # a better solution by trying different combinations of parameters in turn
        if start is None:
            start = model.test_point
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=start, vars=[logs2, logSw4, logw0])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[logr])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[b])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[logP, t0])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[u_star])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[logr])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[b])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[ecc, omega])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[mean])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln, vars=[logs2, logSw4, logw0])
        map_soln = xo.optimize(start=map_soln)

    return model, map_soln


model0, map_soln0 = build_model()

def plot_light_curve(soln, mask=None):
    if mask is None:
        mask = np.ones(len(x), dtype=bool)

    fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 1, figsize=(10, 7), sharex=True)

    ax = axes[0]
    ax.plot(x[mask], y[mask], "k", label="data")
    gp_mod = soln["gp_pred"] + soln["mean"]
    ax.plot(x[mask], gp_mod, color="C2", label="gp model")
    ax.legend(fontsize=10)
    ax.set_ylabel("relative flux [ppt]")

    ax = axes[1]
    ax.plot(x[mask], y[mask] - gp_mod, "k", label="de-trended data")
    for i, l in enumerate("b"):
        mod = soln["light_curves"][:, i]
        ax.plot(x[mask], mod, label="planet {0}".format(l))
    ax.legend(fontsize=10, loc=3)
    ax.set_ylabel("de-trended flux [ppt]")

    ax = axes[2]
    mod = gp_mod + np.sum(soln["light_curves"], axis=-1)
    ax.plot(x[mask], y[mask] - mod, "k")
    ax.axhline(0, color="#aaaaaa", lw=1)
    ax.set_ylabel("residuals [ppt]")
    ax.set_xlim(x[mask].min(), x[mask].max())
    ax.set_xlabel("time [days]")

    return fig


plot_light_curve(map_soln0);

mod = (
    map_soln0["gp_pred"]
    + map_soln0["mean"]
    + np.sum(map_soln0["light_curves"], axis=-1)
)
resid = y - mod
rms = np.sqrt(np.median(resid ** 2))
mask = np.abs(resid) < 5 * rms

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(x, resid, "k", label="data")
plt.plot(x[~mask], resid[~mask], "xr", label="outliers")
plt.axhline(0, color="#aaaaaa", lw=1)
plt.ylabel("residuals [ppt]")
plt.xlabel("time [days]")
plt.legend(fontsize=12, loc=3)
plt.xlim(x.min(), x.max());

model, map_soln = build_model(mask, map_soln0)
plot_light_curve(map_soln, mask);

np.random.seed(42)
with model:
    trace = pm.sample(
        tune=5000,
        draws=3000,
        start=map_soln,
        chains=4,
        step=xo.get_dense_nuts_step(target_accept=0.9),
    )

pm.summary(
    trace,
    varnames=[
        "logw0",
        "logSw4",
        "logs2",
        "omega",
        "ecc",
        "r_pl",
        "b",
        "t0",
        "logP",
        "r_star",
        "m_star",
        "u_star",
        "mean",
    ],
)

# Compute the GP prediction
gp_mod = np.median(trace["gp_pred"] + trace["mean"][:, None], axis=0)

# Get the posterior median orbital parameters
p = np.median(trace["period"])
t0 = np.median(trace["t0"])

# Plot the folded data
x_fold = (x[mask] - t0 + 0.5 * p) % p - 0.5 * p
plt.plot(x_fold, y[mask] - gp_mod, ".k", label="data", zorder=-1000)

# Overplot the phase binned light curve
bins = np.linspace(-0.41, 0.41, 50)
denom, _ = np.histogram(x_fold, bins)
num, _ = np.histogram(x_fold, bins, weights=y[mask])
denom[num == 0] = 1.0
plt.plot(0.5 * (bins[1:] + bins[:-1]), num / denom, "o", color="C2", label="binned")

# Plot the folded model
inds = np.argsort(x_fold)
inds = inds[np.abs(x_fold)[inds] < 0.3]
pred = trace["light_curves"][:, inds, 0]
pred = np.percentile(pred, [16, 50, 84], axis=0)
plt.plot(x_fold[inds], pred[1], color="C1", label="model")
art = plt.fill_between(
    x_fold[inds], pred[0], pred[2], color="C1", alpha=0.5, zorder=1000
)
art.set_edgecolor("none")

# Annotate the plot with the planet's period
txt = "period = {0:.5f} +/- {1:.5f} d".format(
    np.mean(trace["period"]), np.std(trace["period"])
)
plt.annotate(
    txt,
    (0, 0),
    xycoords="axes fraction",
    xytext=(5, 5),
    textcoords="offset points",
    ha="left",
    va="bottom",
    fontsize=12,
)

plt.legend(fontsize=10, loc=4)
plt.xlim(-0.5 * p, 0.5 * p)
plt.xlabel("time since transit [days]")
plt.ylabel("de-trended flux")
plt.xlim(-0.15, 0.15);

import corner
import astropy.units as u

varnames = ["period", "b", "ecc", "r_pl"]
samples = pm.trace_to_dataframe(trace, varnames=varnames)

# Convert the radius to Earth radii
samples["r_pl"] = (np.array(samples["r_pl"]) * u.R_sun).to(u.R_earth).value

corner.corner(
    samples[["period", "r_pl", "b", "ecc"]],
    labels=["period [days]", "radius [Earth radii]", "impact param", "eccentricity"],
);

with model:
    txt, bib = xo.citations.get_citations_for_model()
print(txt)

print("\n".join(bib.splitlines()[:10]) + "\n...")